Refining the workhorse oil market model

The Kilian and Murphy (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2014, 29, 454–478) structural vector autoregressive model has become the workhorse model for the analysis of oil markets. I explore various refinements and extensions of this model, including the effects of (1) correcting an error in the measure of global real economic activity, (2) explicitly incorporating narrative sign restrictions into the estimation, (3) relaxing the upper bound on the impact price elasticity of oil supply, (4) evaluating the implied posterior distribution of the structural models, and (5) extending the sample. I demonstrate that the substantive conclusions of Kilian and Murphy (2014) are largely unaffected by these changes.     

When companies improve the sustainability of the natural environment: A study of large U.S. companies

In light of the call for companies to abandon current approaches to environmental management, this study adds to the environmental strategy literature and uses the evidence of competitive dynamics among companies to identify a mechanism by which companies invest in proactive environmental strategies and thereby improve the sustainability of the natural environment. An examination utilizing fixed effects regressions on a sample of large U.S.‐based companies reveal that even after controlling the number, environmental and financial performance of leading (environmental) companies, laggard (environmental) companies are more likely to invest in proactive environmental strategies when their leading peers display higher sustainability orientations. Neither the expectation of government regulation nor social movement pressure was found to be influential in this relationship. Therefore, the future dominance of companies' investments in the sustainability of the natural environment will be driven by companies themselves as long as competitive advantages are expected.     

采用COTS器件的低轨星载收发信机设计与实现

在性能、成本和可靠性的多重约束下，采用商用货架（Commercial Off-The-Shelf,COTS）器件设计了一种高性能、低成本星载收发信机。该收发信机的硬件设计不但可同时满足星地和星间应用需要，而且还具有支持多波束、多信道接入的特点。软件设计主要解决了大多普勒频偏条件下的低信噪比解调和变长以太网数据帧的高效处理等问题。地面测试结果表明，在250 kb/s ~ 14 Mb/s信息速率范围内，误比特率低于1.0×10-6时所需的解调信噪比(Eb/N0)不超过2.8 dB，发射信号误差矢量幅度不超过1.9%，高速应用时处理时延可低至3.0 ms。为降低COTS收发信机的可靠性风险，分别在元器件、电路和系统层面进行了有针对性的可靠性保证措施。该设计经过了在轨测试的验证，对其他低轨商业通信载荷的研制有一定的参考价值。     

我国耕地保护政策研究：基于背景、效果与未来趋势

［目的］我国耕地保护政策对保护耕地、保障粮食安全具有重要意义。研究我国耕地保护政策出台的背景及前后关系、相同政策在不同区域内的执行效果差异，能够为更针对性地提出政策建议提供参考。［方法］主要运用了资料分析和定性描述的方法，首先按照耕地保护政策内涵划分为5个阶段，其次从时间、空间两个尺度，判断了耕地保护政策的数量、质量保护效果差异，最后提出了未来政策出台的方向和趋势。［结果］时间尺度上：1986年、1997年、2004年出台的政策对耕地数量保护的成效明显； 2014—2016年耕地质量保护效果略优于2009—2014年； 目前数量保护成效较好，但质量保护远未达到要求。空间尺度上：耕地数量保护效果西部地区最好，东北地区次之，中部地区优于东部地区； 耕地质量保护效果中部地区最佳，东北地区次之，东部地区优于西部地区。［结论］未来政策可向规范补充耕地全国统筹、完善耕地质量保护法律体系、调动农户保护耕地积极性等方向发展。     

“西为中用·顺势利导”——生态雨水机埠 与合流制特点的老旧城区海绵改造

以常德市柏子园汇水片区为例，运用水力模型工 具，探讨在老城区现有末端生态雨水机埠情形下，通过优化设 置低影响开发(LID)设施和管网改造工程，从源头解决机埠合 流制溢流(CSO)污染的效果和可行性。根据棚户区较多、绿 地率少、土壤渗透性差、项目实施难度大等情况，进行项目方 案布置和LID措施选择；根据现状管网特征，进行近远期管网 改造方案和源头截流措施选择。采用典型年降雨数据进行连续 模拟，分析评估在老旧城区增设源头控制设施和中途管网改造 对既定末端机埠溢流水量及溢流频次的控制效果，并通过情景 方案比选，得出在现有土地使用条件下的最优海绵改造方案， 以期为类似合流制特点的区域提供参考和借鉴。     

The initiation of audit committee interlocks and the contagion of accounting policy choices: evidence from special items

Review of Accounting Studies - We document that the initiation of audit committee interlocks is associated with contagion in reported special items. We argue that this is, in part, attributable to...     

Social connections between media and firm executives and the properties of media reporting

Review of Accounting Studies - We study how social connections between top executives of media and listed firms affect the properties of media reporting. We find that socially connected media are...     

四川省水稻产投特征变迁及技术进步对单产的影响

[目的]了解四川水稻产投特征和技术进步对单产的影响,促进水稻可持续生产。[方法]分析了改革开放以来四川省水稻产投特征和技术特征变动,并基于索洛余值法测算了1980~2015年四川省科技进步对水稻单产的贡献情况。[结果](1)全省水稻单产水平及物质与服务费用投入均呈现波动增长趋势,人工投入逐年递减,但人工成本在生产成本中的比重较大;(2)四川省水稻品种选育、栽培管理技术、推广技术、稻作经营方式和农业政策不断变迁,更适应当前以普通家庭生产和新型经营主体共同发展的局面对技术的需求;(3)整体来看,近36年技术进步对四川省水稻单产水平提高的贡献率较低,生产经营较为粗放;(4)分时期看,2005年前,技术进步对全省水稻单产水平提高的贡献率较高,但之后尤其是近5年,技术进步并未对水稻单产水平提高产生影响,要素投入是水稻单产水平提升的主要因素。[结论]提出了加强科技研发及投入水平、"一主多元"联合推广、生产管理技术培训和丘区节本增效生产的政策建议。     

Game-theoretic modeling of pre-disaster relocation

Abstract

Sea-level rise due to climate change is clearly an important problem. This paper uses game theory in conjunction with discounting to explore strategies by which governments might encourage pre-disaster relocation by residents living in areas at high risk of flooding due to sea-level rise. We find that offering a subsidy (e.g., a partial buyout) can be effective if government has a significantly lower discount rate than residents. We also present extensions to our model, exploring the use of a fixed annual benefit after relocation (instead of a one-time subsidy), and hyperbolic instead of standard exponential discounting. Numerical sensitivity analysis elucidates many important factors affecting the timing of anticipatory relocation, since for example relocating too soon may be costly to both residents and government if flooding risk is increasing only gradually. This conceptual model also provides a foundation for future studies that quantify the model with more realistic parameter values (e.g., realistic estimates of flooding probabilities), and alternative behavioral models of resident decision making.     

农村集体经营性建设用地价格影响因素的实证分析*——基于江西省余江县179份交易案例

[目的]确定农村集体商服用地、工业用地价格的影响因素,为科学评估农村集体经营性建设用地地价、构建城乡统一建设用地市场提供参考。[方法]利用全国农村土地使用制度改革试点之一的江西省余江县179个交易案例,运用特征价格模型分析农村集体商服用地、工业用地价格的影响因素及各类因素的贡献率。[结果](1)农村集体商服用地价格的主要影响因素依次为乡镇财政收入、人均纯收入、到客运站距离、到国道的距离、教育设施;农村集体工业用地价格的主要影响因素依次为人均纯收入、人均农村居民点面积、到客运站的距离、到国道的距离。(2)社会经济因素、区位交通因素和公共设施因素对集体商服用地价格的贡献度分别为69. 0%、20. 4%和10. 6%;社会经济因素和区位交通因素对集体工业用地价格的贡献度分别为52. 8%和47. 2%。[结论]总体上与国有城镇建设用地价格存在共性规律,但存在部分因素与国有建设用地价格规律存在差异,农村集体经营性建设用地估价不宜完全套用城镇建设用地的思路。